What founding capital is projected to build.
UnitedPeoples is designed to fund participation for everyone not just from donations but from the everyday economic life of its own members — with the resulting profit returned, by binding covenant, to the mission. The figures below are the Medium scenario: design specifications, built from the ground up and benchmarked to real institutions — not forecasts. Years run on the programme clock: Y10 ≈ 2035, Y20 ≈ 2045.
This page speaks mainly to funders and their analysts. If you're a future member, the number that matters most is simple: membership will be free — and what starts free stays free.
The trajectory, in two measures
Members · millions
BV revenue · €B
Membership and company revenue across the two horizons, from the Founding Memorandum (Medium scenario). The teal bar marks the Phase 1 horizon — Y10, one hundred million members. Both measures stay modest through the build, then reach a different order of magnitude by Y20.
The Medium scenario, in full
| Metric | Y5 | Y10 | Y15 | Y20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Members (millions) | 6 | 100 | 370 | 500 |
| Revenue & mission flows (€B) | ||||
| BV total revenue | 0.3 | 27.2 | 234.6 | 344.8 |
| BV net profit | (0.0) | 6.3 | 63.1 | 94.0 |
| Flywheel → Foundation | — | 1.6 | 22.1 | 37.6 |
| Total Foundation inflow | 0.4 | 13.6 | 51.0 | 70.3 |
| Total ecosystem inflow | 0.8 | 39.2 | 263.5 | 377.5 |
| Capital stock (€B) | ||||
| UP Bank deposits | 1.9 | 700 | 6,734 | 10,500 |
| UP BusinessBank lending | 18 | 420 | 1,380 | 1,800 |
| UP Ventures AUM | 3.5 | 30 | 105 | 150 |
Definitions — Total Foundation inflow: everything the foundation receives in a year (its own earned revenue, the Flywheel donation, outside philanthropy). Total ecosystem inflow: all money entering the whole ecosystem in a year — company revenue plus foundation inflow, with the Flywheel counted once.
For comparison: Triodos Bank holds €24.1B in deposits in a single values-aligned market today. UP's deposit projection assumes deep member integration across a membership two thousand times larger than Triodos's customer base. The scale would be new; the behaviour is documented.
Where the model breaks — named in advance
One scenario is published — the Medium case — deliberately: it is the design specification the founding capital is sized against, not a forecast band. Its most load-bearing assumption is stated plainly: 35% of members banking with UP as their primary relationship by 2035. And the ways it breaks are fixed before the fact. Engagement below comparators narrows UP to a single GlobalCircle and lengthens the horizon. Paid conversion below the 5% floor shifts the model toward philanthropic capital on a longer trajectory. Regulatory or geopolitical disruption stretches Phase 1 toward roughly Year 13–15. The downside switches are costed in the operating plan, and the results of every named test are published either way — the full candour and the tests are on The Plan.
Impact will be measured from week thirteen — not from 2035.
No one is asked to wait ten years to judge UP. The programme is staged, and every stage ends at a gate — Go, No-Go, or Refine — reviewed against targets set before the stage begins, open to funders throughout. Refine is the expected outcome of a healthy gate: the plan is built to be corrected. The mission is the one thing that cannot be.
Week 13 · Gate 1
The Sprint ends with the detailed design, the operating plan and the evidence for both on the table — judged Go, No-Go or Refine.
Month 9 · D-Day
The smallest working whole — three GlobalCircles, the UP HUB and NAVi, live together, in public. It works, visibly, or it does not.
Months 10–36 · The count
One GlobalCircle launched a month from Month 13 — and from D-Day on, members, Circles and verified Projects counted on open dashboards.
After D-Day the measurement lives in the system itself: every Project verified and archived, every result rolled up into open impact dashboards. The Moonshot will be on track on those dashboards, or visibly not.
The plan & the gates, in fullFour vehicles. One engine. None of them the end.
The planned company will run four vehicles — the regulated layer of one coupled system. Their value to the mission comes from being joined to everything else: money available at the moment of need, inside the same system that hosts a Project's life.
| Vehicle | What it will be | Revenue 2035 | 2045 |
|---|---|---|---|
| UP Bank | Everyday personal banking — the engine. Accounts, payments, savings, credit, mortgages, insurance; the main bank for ~35% of members at 2035, ~70% by 2045. | €17.5B | €268B |
| UP BusinessBank | Business banking — serving the institutions that host BrandedCircles and the member-owned enterprises the ecosystem creates. | €7.1B | €68B |
| UP Ventures | The ICV Catalyst Fund family — Igniter (early-stage capital) and Amplifier (growth capital) — earning fund fees and a share of gains, investing alongside aligned partners. | €0.6B | €2.8B |
| UP Platform Services | The non-banking services: the marketplace, the Project funding channel, talent matching, trust and identity services. | €2.1B | €6.2B |
| BV total | €27.2B | €344.8B |
Modelled revenues, Medium scenario — design specifications benchmarked to named institutions, not forecasts.
Commercial success that will not be able to escape the mission.
Stichting UnitedPeoples — the Dutch public-benefit foundation at UP's centre, established 2024 — and UnitedPeoples BV, its planned mission-locked company, designed for B Corp certification, will be bound in a three-way circuit — written into the company's Articles, not left to a board's judgement. The Flywheel switches on in Y6, once the company is in profit; before then, all profit is kept to build the bank. As the institution matures, the split shifts decisively toward the mission.
Will fund the mission.
Share of net profit · Y10 → Y20
Will recapitalise the ecosystem.
Share of net profit · Y10 → Y20
Regulated capital & growth.
Share of net profit · Y10 → Y20
Under the Medium scenario the Flywheel would return €1.6B to the foundation in Y10, rising to €37.6B by Y20 — feeding the mission every cycle. And the institution steadily comes to fund itself: the share of the foundation's income from UP's own earnings and the Flywheel — rather than outside philanthropy — rises from about 21% at Y5 to 37% by Y10 and 76% by Y20. The early years lean on philanthropic support, as the build demands. The mature institution pays its own way.
~€200M catalyses ~€65B.
The founding envelope is philanthropic operating capital: it builds the institution to the point where its regulated vehicles can hold capital and lend. The regulated capital they then need — around €65 billion across the decade, roughly €44B of core bank capital (Tier-1, in banking terms) and ~€20B of aligned fund capital — is a separate, later raise from institutions. It is unlocked by the built institution existing, paid for on capped contract terms, with no claim on the Flywheel and no power over the mission.
Capital is paid, never put in charge.
The targets are not round numbers. They are researched thresholds.
Research on social tipping points sets the order of magnitude — Erica Chenoweth's ~3.5% threshold for successful nonviolent movements, Damon Centola's ~25% threshold for changing social conventions. At global population, the lower threshold is roughly 280 million people. UP's targets are set against it.
A design case, benchmarked — with its levers named.
Numbers at this scale invite scepticism, and the right response is precision about what they are: one central design case, built from the ground up and internally consistent — the way an engineering specification defines a structure before it is built. The economics are benchmarked to real institutions: UP Bank between NuBank and ING, take-up anchored to what Starling and Monzo actually reached, capital requirements on the international Basel banking rules; UP BusinessBank against HSBC Commercial, ING Wholesale and Lloyds; UP Ventures against TPG Rise and Generation.
The assumptions that move the outputs most — named, not buried
How many members make UP their main bank — the largest single lever. Each five percentage points ≈ €2.5B of revenue at 2035.
Roughly €3.5B of revenue for each €100 earned per customer — benchmarked between a digital-only bank and a traditional one.
The design specification everything else scales from.
Fixed in the charter, evolving as the company matures.
Each is flagged for operational validation on the model's own Assumption Watch, with its sensitivity stated. Full workings in the appendix model, opened in diligence.
